IT was all going so well. US President Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, together at last, in a not-quite-friendly but reasonable discussion.
Putin, the self-promoting leader of the nuclear-armed military superpower, seemed to have softened a little, willing to work with an America that realised it needed to have him on board.
That was just over a week ago and then, today, Obama was forced to condone an act executed by one of its allies that saw a Russian fighter jet shot out of the sky and at least two of its soldiers killed.
Things suddenly got awkward.
When it was revealed that Turkey had shot down the Russian fighter jet, Obama said the NATO-signatory was “within its rights to defend its airspace” after Russian pilots ignored repeated warnings.
The President has been very delicate with his words — there’s a lot he’s not saying. But it’s not that America isn’t worried or that Russia has suddenly lost its edge. It’s basically all about trying not to put Putin offside.
Rather than reacting strongly to the conflict, tipped to potentially cause another Cold War, Obama called for calm, saying his top priority “is going to be to ensure that this does not escalate”.
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said the military alliance stood by its member Turkey after the incident, but echoed appeals for calm as fears of clashes between coalition and Russian planes over Syria loom.
“We stand in solidarity with Turkey and support the territorial integrity of our NATO ally, Turkey,” Stoltenberg said after an emergency meeting of all 28 members requested by Ankara.
“Diplomacy and de-escalation are important to resolve this situation. Turkey’s military said the fighter was shot down by two of its F-16s after it violated Turkish airspace 10 times within a five-minute period.
Australian National University researcher and former diplomat Dr Alison Broinowski told news.com.au that, for all the talk of calm, there was likely a lively behind-the-scenes conversation going on between Turkey, Russia and NATO nations.
“I would imagine there would be representatives from other countries in both capitals saying ‘let’s hose this down, let’s keep calm about this until we know what’s really happened’. There’s quite a lot of behind-the-scenes intervention happening where there would be a number of delegations saying ‘let’s take this quietly’,” she said.
“What happens next is going to depend a great deal on which version of events is accepted, and it’s too soon to know that.”
For the US, which has recently engaged Russia in productive discussion through the UN Security Council, keeping quiet is also about holding onto its new-found, important friendship.
“Don’t forget that we saw those pictures of Putin and Obama sitting head to head having what looked like reasonable discussions the other day, and we know that the Russian and the US military have been talking to each other not exactly on friendly terms, but on rational terms over Syria,” Dr Broinowski said.
“It’s a most tricky and duplicitous situation realising that they’ve got to collaborate with the Russians.
“It isn’t really possible to say what’s going on in the heads of the Russians. My view … is that there’s a lot of activity going on right now to keep Turkey and Russia from overreacting and finding out all the facts of the case and seeing where the road lies, because as much as anything people don’t want to sacrifice this new found co-operation that’s come out of the Security Council.”
Curtin University security expert Dr Alexey Muraviev told news.com.au calm language being used by leaders was a sign they were anything but.
“This reaction from leaders shows they took the issue very seriously and all of them admitted that it may have very serious consequences. There is a danger of escalation because of the fear of Russia’s reaction. If there was no fear because of the perception Russia can’t do much, we wouldn’t be seeing such a reaction,” he said.
Dr Muraviev says the US and its NATO allies have not put forward any accusation the shooting was Russia’s fault, and only offered a “rhetorical statement” that Turkey was within its rights to defend its airspace.
“NATO didn’t come and say we want to defend Turkey by all means. They tried to de-escalate the situation because they know Russia is not brushing it under the carpet — they’ve lost a pilot, they’ve lost a marine, they’ve lost a helicopter on a rescue mission and they have another pilot that may have been captured,” Dr Muraviev said.
“The Russians have made it very clear from now on we will engage. That’s the reaction that NATO members understood because that’s why tried to defuse it.”
Fears are growing over what could happen next if those calls for calm weren’t heeded by Russia and Turkey.
Putin has warned Ankara its “stab in the back” would have “serious consequences for Russian-Turkish relations.
While Russia and Turkey have traded barbs before over alleged incursions by Russian fighters into Turkish airspace during forays over Syria, this is the first time Turkey has shot down any Russian planes since Moscow started air strikes in September.
The incident has sparked concern in the West it could escalate into clashes between Russian and other members of the US-led coalition, which include Turkey, during their separate campaigns to target jihadists in Syria.
It also risks derailing efforts to bring peace to Syria that were gaining tentative momentum following the November 13 Paris terror attacks, claimed by militants from the Islamic State group, which controls swathes of northern Syria.
Dr Muraviev told news.com.au incidents such as what happened on Tuesday near the Syrian-Turkish border “can lead to war”, and the threat of Russia was very real, especially for Turkey.
“This knee-jerk reaction by Turkey [to shoot down the plane] was not very well thought through. The reaction by the United States made it very clear to the Turks that they didn’t act smartly,” he said.
“That message to stay calm and act responsibly is something the US, that NATO, really wants to get through because we are talking about nuclear-armed Russia and nuclear-armed NATO and sliding into an open confrontation over Turkey.
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